Section 10: Implied Pot Odds Hand History Review JT Offsuit
maybe it's a noobish question but I have to ask :).
In this video you showed why you called even with bad pot odds and I think I understand why you called the half-pot bets. So the essence is that "you can call bad pot odds because of the good implied odds an aggressive opponent gives you". Is this assumption right?
If you flip the sides: Your opponent protects his two-pair against the possible flush / straight draws by giving you bad pot odds. So he is playing the right way and forced you into an error. Is this right too? (Btw I don't want to say you play erroneously :))
But how can it be that both sides seem to play correctly - at least in my beginners eyes :)? Or to phrase the question a bit differently: What could he have done to protect his hand better? Would a 3/4 or an overbet with e.g. 1.5 pot size bet be giving you that much worse pot odds which the implied pot odds couldn't make up? Is there a break even point (1/2 pot size bad, 3/4 pot size good) for hand protection or is this based on your opponent or is there any other rule of thumb??
Thanks in advance and regards
I don't remember the exact hand you're talking about, but you're thinking about it correctly.
A good player shouldn't typically be giving us decent implied odds. With implied odds, we expect our opponent to make a mistake by paying us off when we hit our draw. If they don't our implied odds aren't great. So if I assume our opponent is c-betting to bet for value + protection to charge us a bad pot odds, I have to determine if he'll make a mistake or not "if" I make my draw. So it really comes down to being able to correctly answer that question.
If he is betting the correct amount to give my draws a bad price, then he's doing nothing wrong. When a draw completes, that's where implied odds comes into play. If its a hidden draw, there's not much he can do. But if its fairly obvious and it hits my calling range, then that's where big hero folds come into play...being able to make big laydowns even with good hands when you suspect you're beat.
Hope that helps!
Thanks for the swift reply.
So that I understand it right you're saying there is no way to protect a hand other than giving villain bad pot odds and be aware of hero folds? There is no mathematical formula you can use to calculate the bet sizing that the villain can't compensate the bad pot odds by the implied odds?
I'm asking that because in the video before (Section 10: More on implied odds) you showed a formula "Pot x (villains bad pot odds - odds you can call based on your outs)" in the example "$3 x (.33 - .17) = $0.49". So there is no easy formula like rule of 2 and 4 to use to calculate how much you should bet to protect your hand??
Remember - when you have a value hand, you goal is 2-fold: (1) extract value and (2) on wet board textures give them a bad pot odds price so they can't profitably realize their drawing hand equity.
In general a 3/4 pot size bet will give bad pot odds to any drawing hand. In the course I talk about this when talking about "betting the best hand" where our bet size = their pot odds. If you estimate their equity, you need to bet more than their equity % to give them a bad pot odds price.