Another same suit board. Different game type.
We are playing .02/.04 cash game. We are full ringed and we're in MP2 with AhQd. It folds to me and I raise to 3bb. I'm reraised from sb to 10bb. Bb folds. I think I'm against a pair like 77+. Maybe I'm against AK, AQ as well. I figure I'm in decent shape, so I call to see a flop.
Flop comes 2, 5, K all hearts. I have the Ace of hearts. SB bets pot. I painstakingly fold.
Looking back on it. This is way tighter than I'd like. Even discounting a heart or two I have 7 hearts in the deck and 3 aces that help. Maybe the queens are good against something like a pair that didn't catch a set up to Jacks. This type of bet does seem strong like he has something, but I think the best option here is an all in. Maybe there's fold equity here some of the time. I for sure think I'm getting called in this instance, but I think I have to pull the bluff to represent either a K or flush here. And if that doesn't work rely on my alternative outs. Am I wrong?
What's your best play and why? Also what should villain do with his range, considering he 3 bet preflop? Is he betting pot with pairs, possibly sets or flush draws? Or is it just a continuation? Any help here is appreciated. I'm doing what I can on my own on the side.
Preflop I think villain's range is limited to AA, KK, AK and sometimes QQ. 77+ is too wide, especially at 4NL and from the SB.
So I think that I would fold AQo here, but a lot depends on vilain's the 3 bet range.
Calling is still ok as you have position
When the flop comes and villain bets pot size, you get 2:1 or 33%
With your flush draw and 9 outs (no reason to discount outs?) you have approx 20% equity.
Even when you add the aces (against AK for instance) you have 12 outs and 27% equity.
So good fold imo...
Since you're playing full ring, we should assume your opponent's are more passive and nitty than someone on a 6-max table. Also, because its 4nl, I doubt most people are 3-betting polarized. I would assume they are 3-betting a depolarized strong value range. When you open from middle position and face an OOP 3-bet from the SB, we should assume he has a stronger range (unless he is capable of 3-betting polarized or merged)....but with no information, I would assume a strong depolarized range.
I think a good, conservative 3-betting range would be JJ+, AK. Given that information folding or calling pre-flop is fine, but understand that if you flop top pair and face aggression you should tread the water lightly.
Anyways...as played, villain is most likely c-betting AK, KK, AA or possibly Khx...but since you block the nut flush I doubt it. In a 3-bet pot I wouldn't expect villain to c-bet pocket pairs smaller than Kings, especially with a pot-sized bet in a 3-bet pot.
Whether you should call or fold is based upon how likely villain is likely to stack off if you hit the flush on the turn. Typically flush draws are terrible for implied odds, but if we have a fish that will stack off with top pair, and over pair or top set on a 4-flush board I don't mind calling the flop if you are both at least 100bb deep. If your opponent isn't likely to do this or you have no information, fold and move on to the next hand.
Regarding bluff raising the flop. I don't think you get many folds unless your opponent plays scared poker. Most people are inclined to stack off with top pair or better in a 3-bet pot, especially when they bet so largely on the flop.
Hope that helps.