Pokerstars Nl2 - 99 vs UTG raise.
My thought process in the hand :
I call preflop because of set mining. Over a sample of 28 hands (so not allot) he is playing 30/30. My plan is to call for set mining and fold a CBet on the flop. The flop comes and there comes an A, i plan to fold but he shows weakness and checks the hand. I check behind. Theres comes a 5 on the turn, it is not hitting his UTG raise range and he bets out. I now think he is trying to bluff me off, but i am not 100% sure. Maybe he checked the flop to trick me and he has an Ax. My plan is to call 1 time and see what he does on the river. he checks on the river and i check behind.
What i maybe could have done : He showed weakness on the flop so maybe i could have made a bet and represented the A and if he called play c/f the rest of the streets.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/
Hero (CO) ($2)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9
UTG raises to $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.06, 3 folds
Flop: ($0.15) A, 6, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.15) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.08, Hero calls $0.08
River: ($0.31) J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $0.31 | Rake: $0.01
Results below: [spoiler]
UTG had 10, 10 (one pair, tens).
Hero didn't show 9, 9 (one pair, nines).
Outcome: UTG won $0.30[/spoiler]
Some thoughts on the hand and your analysis. Pocket nines isn't a set mining hand versus a fairly wide UTG raise. In fact, it shouldn't be a set mine usually unless its in a 3bet or 4bet pot. Against hands like AJ+, KQ+ you're an equity favorite pre-flop.
On the flop he'll check back his weaker Ax hands for pot control. He'll also check back lower pairs KK or less that didn't flop a set. When he checks, I recommend a bet from you because of the wet board texture with the full + straight draw possibilities. Also, when betting your protect your equity against hands like KQ and JT that can hit a better pair on the turn.
As played, calling the turn and checking back the river is fine since you have a medium strength hand with showdown value. I do expect him to show up sometimes with a weak ace as well as a wide variety of pocket pairs that don't make a set.
in a situation like this... when he checks back the jack on the river, the chance of him having the A I think are very slim.. given that hes been aggressive with a 30/30 since hoping on the table.. (although I know this is small sample) I'd expect him to be aggressive on that flop even if he just happened to be holding an A2o or something along that line. Although I know that type of hand is very unlikely. But with the check downs, I would think he's showing that he really doesn't have an A... maybe spiking a pair of jacks on the river and hoping that's enough to take the pot with a check.
would you say this would be a good spot to bet the river as a semi bluff of sorts to try and take it down right there? or does the showdown value on the 99 out way villains potential range? I find situations similar to this come up quite often. I hope my question is clear for you.
I wouldn't read too much into the 30/30 stats unless you have some good reads from hands that went to showdown. Based upon his play in this hand, I wouldn't say he's too aggressive because I'd expect him to turn his hand into a bluff on the river.
As played, I don't think you need to bluff because you have decent showdown and you can't represent a J. If you had, for example, a busted straight or flush draw, a pair of 2's, K-high or something like that then I don't mind bluffing the river because you have no showdown value.