Why should i have called or folded using math
i need some help. i made a big fold to an opponent because i didn't know what he could or did have. If i called i had no idea what to do on the next street. i really didn't see him play much before this hand. This was full ring.
SB: Billykop 33.92
BB: rockmunis 7.84
MP: crance99 28.35
UNG, 1,2,3 all fold
MP, i raise Pot .7 (3.5bb) Ah Ac
CO, Button fold
Flop 5d 10h 7h
Me 1.05 into 2.10 pot
BB Raise to 5.25
i call the time bank to figure out why he would raise like that. i ended up folding because i was thinking he had trips or was making a move with an over pair or maybe A10. I usually can have an good idea of what someone could have, but that size bet then just knocked me for a loop.
Also i didn't know what i would do if a heart came or a Broadway card. Can some one help me figure out what math system i should have used to make the system. This is the weak spot in my logic i am looking to start to use for these situations.
PS. After some advise i will give you some hands i saw him play in this manor later in the session.
I think you're playing 20nl. If that's the case, he started the hand with only 39bb and is most likely a bad player. Given the effective stack sizes are only 39bb between the both of you I don't like the fold.
Without doing the math, it looks like he just hit the "pot" button to do a pot-sized raise. That could be a wide variety of hands including flush draws, straight draws, top pair, two pair, or sets. Assigning him this entire range of possible made and drawing hands: TT,77,55,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T7s,98s,86s,75s,64s,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o,98o,86o,75o,64o, he is a 38% dog versus your pocket aces, meaning you're a 62% favorite on the flop. I excluded a lot of flush draws in this range...if he has more flush draws then you're even a bigger favorite.
I'm never folding here for only 39bb and will happily re-raise all-in for such a small effective stack size. If he somehow flopped a set or two pair, good for him.
When he raises in this spot, think of how many combos of draws compared to made hands he can have. On a wet board texture, there are a lot more draws (really good ones) in his eyes that he's happy to raise. He can also over-value top pair with a raise too.
In general, the more wet and coordinated the board, the less inclined I am to fold. The more dry the board, for example K82 rainbow, the more inclined I am to fold. Same thing for stack sizes. If I lose with JJ+ to a 1/3 stack shorter stacker, so be...but I won't risk 100bb+.
Hope that helps.
Thank you for that, but it looks like i made an error the SB is the one who raised on the flop. If the short stake did i would have called.
I did see him play later on and i think he had King high flush, or the 10 with an A or K kicker. He would bet/reraise big on nut flush draws or top pairs. When he played AA one time he always bet smaller to get callers.
So if i look at the bet and making a call, i would be getting 3:1 odds so my equity or chance to win would have to be over 25%. As you said i have that right now. If he has trips i have less than 1% to win.
So knowing now what i know i would call. If the flush comes i would fold. If a lower card come i would bet or reraise him. If any paint come i would call depending on the size.
I can say your Crushing micro stakes full course is helping me out improving my game. I am about 1/2 done with it. I also picked up your essential poker math book after this hand to help me with these situations.
Thank you for the help.
Here is the hand. I just figured out if you do the replay in Global poker you can copy the address and anyone can see the replay. This makes replays a lot easier to share and use for teaching.
Just getting back into it myself. He is likely going to be calling with a lot of pocket pairs, suited broadways, and maybe some suited connectors. I think 3betting/shoving will isolate you against worse hands. Calling is good, you have the re-draw, and there are some cards you can continue on OTT to agression, but I don't think you can call a triple barrel here unless you have reads they will bluff with missed draws. Folding I think isn't the worst either, since I feel like at nl20 most of the people doing this with combo draws/ nut flush draws.
I am just new and getting back to it, so if many people disagree with me I would take their word over mine.
Edit: Changed a lot of my answers.
Seeing that his is GlobalPoker your strategy should be a bit skewed because the player pool is so horrendous, even at 20nl.
First, you should be bumping up your raise first in sizing to 4x with nutted hands, especially when you think your opponents will call your pre flop raise.
Second, your flop bet sizing is way too small. Since GlobalPoker is full of calling stations, on such a dynamic flop texture with straight + flush draws that can call, I'd bet close to a pot-sized bet - probably around $1.90. When you bet a 1/2 pot sized bet, you're not only under representing the strength of your hand, but also not protecting your hand well against flush + straight draws or building the pot big enough with AA on this texture where you'll get called by loads of worse.
When Billykop check-raises you with a pot-sized raise, this is an easy flat call with 130bb effective stacks, especially because you have positional advantage on him. If effective stacks where shorter, I have no problem with re-raising and looking to get it in on the flop on this site with such bad players over playing hands.
If you call and a heart rolls off and you put villain on made flush draws, you still have a re-draw to the nuts and a lot of $ left behind for implied odds.