Unibet 4NL - correct fold after reraise?
4NL game with only 3 active players at the table.
I get 99 in the SB, BTN makes the call and I raise to 4bb, BB makes the call and BTN makes a min re-raise.
a) I didn't see him do stuff like this before.
b) he is shortstack - as is the BB
c) I am out of position
Based on these I decide to let it go.
Correct decision? Or should I call based on implied odds for both the BTN & BB?
Game #572631300: Table NL4 - 0.02/0.04 - No Limit Hold'Em - 13:24:59 2017/09/11
***Seated players ***
Seat 1: Hero (€6.52)
Seat 2: Givememonay (€1.95)
Seat 4: SmileltsMe (€4.17) (sitting out)
Seat 6: WhatTheDucck (€1.80)
*** Blinds and button ***
WhatTheDucck has the button
Hero posts small blind, €0.02
Givememonay posts big blind, €0.04
*** Hole cards***
Dealt to Hero [9c 9h]
Dealt in Givememonay
Dealt in WhatTheDucck
*** Preflop ***
WhatTheDucck calls €0.04
Hero raises €0.14 to €0.16
Givememonay calls €0.12
WhatTheDucck raises €0.26 to €0.30
Givememonay calls €0.14
*** Flop *** [7h 9s 8c]
WhatTheDucck bets €0.76
Givememonay calls €0.76
***Turn *** [7h 9s 8c] [Jc]
Givememonay bets €0.89, and is all-in
WhatTheDucck calls €0.74, and is all-in
Uncalled bet returned to Givememonay: €0.15
*** Showdown ***
*** River *** [7h 9s 8c] [Jc] [3c]
Givememonay shows [Ts Qc], A Straight
WhatTheDucck shows [Kd Kc], A Pair of Kings
Givememonay wins €3.72
I think you should call, but lets look at the pot odds.
You need to call .14 into a pot of 62. so .14/62 your getting 1/4.4 or 22.5%. Before reading the hand, that move looks like AA or KK to me. If those are the hands you have 19% equity in the hand. Your just under the amount, and your just under the 15 to 1 for set mining. If you know the BB would call you get the odds. The implied odds are great if you hit a set. You would be able take his stake and the other player if you knew he would call.
I think its a hard choice no matter what you go with. But i think i would have folded with the possibility of being squeezed by the BB.
Pre-flop iso-raise a bit larger from OOP. Also, 99 isn't a set-mining hand. When you're playing 3-ways its a good value hand pre-flop (essentially the same as TT). A limp/min-3bet can mean all sorts of things. Can be a strong hand or villain is looking to gamble a bit.
Against less than 50bb stacks, where our opponents are fish and we're playing 3-ways where ranges are wider, hands like 99 go up in value. So I'm definitely folding to a min 3-bet. His range could be narrow or super wide, for example: 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo. If we assume his min 3-betting range is decently strong, maybe something like 88+,AJs+,AJo+, you have close to 44% equity.
Also, when BB calls your iso-raise, he'll almost certainly call the min-3bet after you call, increasing your implied odds.
When you think about the set-mining rule, think about not only the 15-to-1 rule, but your break even point, as well as the players that will potentially be in the hand. Our break even point is roughly 8.5-to-1, so anything over that is profit. Also remember, the 15-to-1 in a hand with potentially 2 fish means we only need to get 7.5-to-1 from each fish to make a total of 15-to-1.