Am I getting correct pot odds to call on T and R?  

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DavidGoar
(@davidgoar)
Active Member
Joined:8 months  ago
Posts: 7
December 1, 2017 9:25 am  

Hand History driven straight to this forum by DriveHUD - http://drivehud.com

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BB ($3.64)
BB ($1.5)
BTN ($1.3)
HERO ($8.31)
BB ($5)
UTG ($5.71)

Dealt to Hero Kd Jc

UTG Folds, BB Raises To $0.15 (Rem. Stack: 3.42), BB Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 8.11), BB Folds

Flop ($0.52) 8d Ah Qs
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.3 (Rem. Stack: 3.12), HERO Calls $0.3 (Rem. Stack: 7.81)

Turn ($1.12) 8d Ah Qs 3c
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.5 (Rem. Stack: 2.62), HERO Calls $0.5 (Rem. Stack: 7.31)

River ($2.12) 8d Ah Qs 3c Tc
HERO Checks, BB Bets $2.62 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0.00), HERO Calls $2.62 (Rem. Stack: 4.69)

BB shows Jh Qd

HERO wins $7


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Siego7
(@siego7)
Trusted Member
Joined:2 years  ago
Posts: 98
December 1, 2017 4:11 pm  

Hello DavidGoar

The hand history was not easy to read, but I'll try to give it a go.

As you call $0.18 I assume the pot is $0.38 on the flop.
Villain bets $0.3 which is about a 30% PSB. 
At the moment you only have King high. 

Odds if you will face another bet on the turn (Rule of 2)
If villain hit the Ace, you need to draw for the straight: 4 outs => 8% pot odds 
If villain only hit the Queen, you have 7 outs (4 T's and 3 K's). => 15% pot odds
So not enough in terms of direct pot odds...

Odds if there is check on the turn and you get a free card (Rule of 4)
4 outs => 16%
7 outs => 28% 
As it is quite close, a call is fine as there is still quite some money behind.

Now on the turn.
The pot is now $0.96.
Your situation did not improve and villain bets $0.5, so a 1/2 PSB giving you 3:1 or 25%
As we are on the turn only the Rule of 2 applies:
If villain hit the Ace, you need to draw for the straight: 4 outs => 8% pot odds 
If villain only hit the Queen, you have 7 outs (4 T's and 3 K's). => 15% pot odds

We know you are in the last situation, so let's work on that:
You need to put in $0.5 to win $0.3 (15% of $1.96 pot).
Your profit for this call is $-0.2
Makeup is $1.4 (15% is 6:1 so 0.2 x 7)

As villain has $2.62 behind, the call is correct imo


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Alton - MicroGrinder Poker
(@microgrinder)
Member Admin
Joined:2 years  ago
Posts: 331
December 2, 2017 2:44 pm  

Something doesn't add up with your hand history. It shows 3 people in the BB (I've seen others post on other forums with DriveHUD with the same issue).

Also, shows open-raise to $0.15 and your call $0.18. I'd double-check all the info before posting hand histories with DriveHUD in the future.

Anyways...I'll ignore all of that and base my analysis on what is shown on the flop and turn. If you assume villain's c-betting range is composed of Ax hands, then you have 4 outs with 8% equity chance of improving getting 26.7% pot odds. So no, you're not getting the proper pot odds to call. Same is on the turn: 8% equity with 24% pot odds.

I guess the bigger question is if you know how to properly estimate your equity and pot odds, as well as situations where you have good implied odds?

If not, I'd work on improving that. Great thing is I have awesome resources for that (my books and courses on Essential Poker Math).


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