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Should I have applied the Baluga Theorem?
Should I have been more aggressive earlier or should I have folded on the River - or did I make the right play and just lose?
June 11, 2016
12:47 pm
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frogmoreace
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May 12, 2016
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Okay – here is the background, the hand and my thoughts:

Boavada 5NL

I am small blind with 93BB

the button has 85BB

the button’s stats after 60 hands are:

VP:40 PFR:17 3Bet:0/50 CB:67/60 Stl:31/20 SD:33/71

everyone folds to the button who bets 3BB – a standard opening raise

I have pocket QcQh – I call in lieu of making a 3Bet – he had slowplayed trip A’s earlier to beat my AQ pocket cards with AQ on that flop and I felt comfortable calling for pot control on this hand given what happened earlier and recognizing that I will be OOP for the entire hand

Flop: 5d3s7h

I donk bet 4BB as protection given the non-flush, double gapped low card flop, the button just calls my 4BB.

Turn: As

YIKES! Not what I wanted. I check for pot control and to see what the button does with the A (information) and the button checks. So he did not leverage the scare card and I get a free card.

River: 4h

the only hands I see beating me are:

AA – but he did not bet the A on the turn

pocket KK – which I think he would betting since I checked the turn when the A came up

or the 6 for the straight – I feel his holding a pocket hand with a 6 at this point is unlikely

I feel two pair is unlikely given the flop texture. And if he has a pocket pair it is most likely is below my QQ.

I check the river feeling somewhat uncomfortable with him still being in the hand on the river and with the pot not being that large I don’t have a large risk, but I would at least win a little. I will see what he does now, but I plan to call given I think a bet on his part could be a bluff or weaker hand, since his VIP is 40 and he has shown to be aggressive.

The button bets large –  37BB. I call. If he has a made hand I still feel I could be the better hand, and I think he could be muscling me. He shows 6h6s for the straight and I lose a total of 44BB.

My net losses in a given session are ALWAYS just from a few large hands so I scrutinize these loss hands carefully – many of these larger loss hands since completing Crush are because I am too aggressive with marginal hands on the flop and turn and that is becoming evident as I do my data base analysis – a leak you did not teach me, it is just my moving too far away from the real NIT I previously was. My over compensating.

But I am not sure on this hand what is the correct play? Did I just lose and so-be-it? Should I have 3bet pre-flop to get him off his 6’s? Should I have raised on the Turn to represent the A? Should I have just folded the river to such a large bet?

THANKS!

 

Chris

June 12, 2016
4:28 pm
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Alton - MicroGrinder Poker
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April 21, 2016
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Hi Chris, the Baluga Theorem doesn’t apply here because it is when you are facing a raise on the turn.

In regards to the hand, you need to 3bet QQ pre-flop in the SB versus a BTN open at 5NL on Bovada. With QQ against a fishy opponent I don’t mind getting it in pre-flop since you’ll be up against a wide range of hands that fishy opponents over-value pre-flop getting it in 88+, AJ+.

Just because your opponent had AA earlier in the session doesn’t mean he has AA when he raises on the BTN later in the session…there isn’t any correlation between the two. So just 3bet pre-flop.

As played, you should be check/raising that flop for value because your opponent is c-betting 2/3 of the time and you get called by lots of draws and pair+draw combos. Donk betting the flop doesn’t make much sense given that you didn’t want to 3bet pre-flop unless you’re trying to induce a raise to get the money in on the flop.

The turn is a great example of when a scare card isn’t a scare card. Villain’s flop continuing range is composed of smaller cards that connect with the board, so bet / folding the turn to a raise is fine.

As played on the river, you should be folding when villain bets 37BB into a 15BB pot (based upon my calculations). QQ is nothing than a bluff catcher. You lose to straights, sets, lots of two pairs, and Ax. When you call, you have to win 71% of the time to be break-even here: 71% = (risk/(risk+reward)), which I doubt you ever are.

Answer to your comments / questions:

My net losses in a given session are ALWAYS just from a few large hands so I scrutinize these loss hands carefully – many of these larger loss hands since completing Crush are because I am too aggressive with marginal hands on the flop and turn and that is becoming evident as I do my data base analysis – a leak you did not teach me, it is just my moving too far away from the real NIT I previously was. My over compensating.

In this example, I don’t think you were aggressive enough. 3betting QQ pre-flop against a BTN open in the SB would be the aggressive play. I’d recommend posting marginal hands that you played pre-flop, flop and the turn really aggressive for review. I wouldn’t consider QQ a marginal hand.

But I am not sure on this hand what is the correct play? Did I just lose and so-be-it? Should I have 3bet pre-flop to get him off his 6’s? Should I have raised on the Turn to represent the A? Should I have just folded the river to such a large bet?

Like I said earlier, yes you should had 3bet pre-flop for value and if he calls with 66, he’s making a mistake. You could not have raised the turn as played since you said BTN checked back. Yes you should had folded the river. Whenever a loose-passive opponent is betting ~2.5x the pot on the river, unless you have the pure nuts, its a fold. 

Hope this analysis helps.

June 13, 2016
1:03 pm
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frogmoreace
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May 12, 2016
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MOST MOST COMPREHENSIVE ANSWER!!! THANK-YOU!!!

Between this hand and a prior post you responded to from me you may be wondering if I actually listened to your lectures – I promise I did but in the heat of battle I am not always connecting the dots as I should. Your post play review combined with my having time to study your answer is providing me much more clarity.

I just watched your hand review lesson in Conquer (I skipped ahead to that lesson) and I also watched a hand review tutorial for PT4 on YouTube at SmartPokerStudy.com so my next step is to use my 500+ hand database from this past weekend to analyze what my play looked like. I do have 26 hands tagged as I played so I have a good starting point for my review. Once I do that I will see if I have some other hands to post as you suggested. 

I am not trying to get “free coaching” so I will be judicious on not posting a high volume of hands.

Also – I went back and reviewed the Baluga theorem in Crush so I won’t extend that to the river.

Again, thanks!

 

Chris

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