To c bet or not to c bet.
Hero (SB): $4.78 (119.5 bb)
BB: $4.25 (106.3 bb)
MP: $4.29 (107.3 bb)
CO: $3.76 (94 bb)
BTN: $6.62 (165.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A:club: 8:diamond:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, BB calls $0.08
Flop: ($0.24) Q:spade: 9:heart: J:club: (2 players)
The villain is 29/15 over 131 hands and has folded to c bets 71% of the time out of 7 instances so far. Even though this board doesn't contain a flush draw I still consider this a pretty wet flop that connects with quite a lot of his range. I'm torn on c betting this flop so lets look at the pros and cons.
Villain seems to be quite fit or fold and folds to c bets 71% so far.
I have some equity with the low end of the gutshot and an over card
I don't have any showdown value so that favors betting.
Wet board texture that is likely to hit villains quite well.
I think I have enough going for me here to out weigh the connected board texture but what if the flop was 2 toned. Would you bet this flop as it stands? How would you adjust that decision if it were a 2 toned flop?
Blind versus blind, in the SB I would recommend checking in this instance for the following reasons:
- The wet board texture minimizes your fold equity even if you have seen villain fold to 71% of c-bet before.
- Your sample size of 7 hands of folding to c-bets is a small sample size so its difficult to have a good idea of villain's overall tendencies.
- Blind versus blind, BB will be calling with any K, Q, J, T, or 9...which are lots of combos of hands.
- You really don't want to build a pot semi-bluffing with the low end of the straight draw...its a hand that prefers to get to showdown against a pair of Q's or J's.
- You have showdown value with your A-high if villain has Kx or Tx for the straight draw and nothing else.
- Since villain appears to be fit-or-fold so far, you should expect him to check back with air and draws and bet hands that beat you that won't fold to a c-bet...so you know where you're at by checking back this flop. If villain bets, you can fold. If he checks, then you can consider firing a delayed c-bet on the turn or checking and trying to get to showdown.
Hope that helps.