Hello poker lovers. I am quite new to the forum and this is my first post. I would like to ask you if you can give me some suggestions about what do you think happened in the following hand:
Stacks: CO 14.82 BB
BTN 23.55 BB
BB 26.51 BB
(the bubble was near btw)
Pre: CO and BTN call and BB checks
Flop: 2c 10s Qd
Flop action: BB checks, CO Bets 2.20 BB BTN calls and BB folds
The turn in 7d and then the CO bets 11.62 BB (ALL-IN) and the BTN calls
Then the river comes and it's the 4c
The CO hold Q5sp and the BTN has K10h
How do you explain all this? I mean if I was the BTN I probably would have raised on the flop considering the bauble is near and try to throw my opp off his hand but I can also justify folding here since I hold middle pair and my opponent can shove on any street. Is my way of thinking wrong or are these two players not that good?
I hope I didn't post this question in the wrong topic and if I did please put in in the right one.
Thanks in advance
Hi thrilaras7 welcome to the forum.
The buttons hand is not strong enough to raise for value but is to strong to raise as a bluff. In order to bet or raise for value you need to have
over 50% equity vs your opponents calling range. In order to bluff you need fold equity and in this spot the CO bets out into a multiway limped pot
on the bubble, I don't see much fold equity here. What the BTN does have is SDV(Showdown Value) and should call this flop bet and look to get to showdown.
Once the CO jams the turn it's really gonna be based on reads at this point. If the CO is an aggresive player who has a lot of bluffs call, if not
it's a pretty easy fold.
Hopefully that helps. Alton is much more eloquent than I am at explaining things and I sure he'll chime in here as well. If he says I butchered it ignore
everything I said and listen to him LOL.
Welcome to the forum, I went ahead and moved your post to the Hand History view sub-forum.
So regarding your question and without getting into equities and stuff like superunk0wn has discussed I'll give a super simple answer to your question: its a freeroll tournament with tons of bad recreational players playing it for fun not having a clue what they are doing!
Since they're bad, BTN thinks Q5 top pair with a horrible kicker is the nuts and CO thinks middle pair tens is possibly good or good enough to bluff since he has a King over card as well.
There really isn't much logic to how they play, so don't try to figure it out...just understand they are bad and they probably don't even know what a "bubble" is to be honest.
Just exploit their bad play and profit. 🙂