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June 22, 2016
BTN: $5.74 (114.8 bb)
Hero (SB): $5.69 (113.8 bb)
BB: $5.78 (115.6 bb)
UTG: $4.22 (84.4 bb)
MP: $3.07 (61.4 bb)
CO: $11.16 (223.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J J
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.30) 8 8 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30
Turn: ($0.90) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70
River: ($2.30) A (2 players)
The villain was 53/7 over 135 hands but was not that passive post flop.
I could have probably made it 4x here to get more value since villain is not likely to fold.
Villain’s range is super wide here all kinds of draws to get value from.
I go for more value here lots of backdoor draws improve and some now pair up as well. Also the 6 is not that threatening to 99 or TT which also pick up straight draws now and at this point I expect an 8 or a made straight to come out and raise a good amount of the time.
This seems like the ultimate scare card but I don’t think so. I don’t expect villain to get the the river with many aces that aren’t the Ah and this being the Ah and the fact that I have the Jh has limited the amount of flush draws in his range.That being said value betting has become extremely thin. So now what?
X/C – I think even passive villains will see this as an opportunity to bluff with a busted straight draws here some portion of the time.(10-15% maybe?). A pot sized bet would require 33% so I think this is my least favorite line.
X/F – Do you just check here and hope he takes 1 pair hands and busted draws to showdown?
B/F – If we are betting here it needs to be small maybe like 1/3 pot in order to get value from hands like TT,99,7x,6x.
I found this to be an interesting and tough spot. Let me know what you think about it. I would also like some feedback on my though process. I have been working on improving my in game thought process which is what I have laid out here. After reviewing the hand some I believe that the number of combos of Ax are higher than I thought they were originally. Specifically A5, A6, A7, A9 all which he could have floated with and picked up draws on the turn.
April 21, 2016
Nice hand to post because this is a great example of a tough spot we often face.
I’d definitely like to know a bit more about villain. Is he a fit-or-fold villain or a calling station? What is his fold to cbet percentage? That’ll give us a better idea of how to play this hand on the river.
I do like your analysis but I’d like for you to further narrow down villain’s flop cbet calling range (flush draws, straight draws, small-medium pocket pairs, 8x, 7x, broadway overcards, etc).
Yes, if villain is a calling station, then you should be exploitatively larger pre-flop to 4x similar to how your sized your bets large on the flop and turn.
On the river, you’re right…villain doesn’t get to the river with many Ax hands compared to the rest of his flop and turn calling range. Yes there are some Ax hands in his range if he is a calling station but tons more hands you beat (small pairs and busted draws). The is actually a bigger scare card than the Ace because he has flush draws in his range here.
I think this is a fairly clear bet/fold line. The more of a calling station villain is, the less thin this is because you’re likely to get called much more by worse. If villain is more fit/fold, then its a thinner bet. But you need to bet here for value and if you get raise throw your hand into the much if its a large raise.
- Fit/Fold Villain: Bet smaller to get crying call from worse.
- Calling Station Villain: Bet bigger on the river to get called by lots of worse.
- If villain raise, what do you do? It really depends…but most of the time we’re folding.
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