Hi hows it going.
I was watching some of your hands on youtube and thought id post some thoughts and get involved. The QQ hand what % of hands do you think an average villain opens on the BTN ? if we take a conservative but widely used figure of 40%, the range you assign him for calling with of 55+,AJs+,AQo+,KJs+,KQo is very tight assuming he 4bets QQ+ AK , that range has 41% equity vs your 5% 3bet , but it would mean he's folding 78% of the time to a 3bet which is really tight.
If villain calls with
JJ-66,AQs-A9s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,AQo+ ,assuming he 4bets QQ+ AK
vs your 5% range he has 38% equity which is only slightly lower than the 41% equity with the range you assigned him . And he's folding 74% of the time to your 3bet with this range , which is still quite a high fold % .
With a calling range of JJ-66,AQs-ATs,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,AQo-AJo,KQo assuming he 4bets QQ+ AK, this range has 35% equity vs 5% 3bet range and hes still folding 70% of the time with this range. If you add some AK to his calling range his calling range equity slightly goes up a few %. So i think 9Ts is well within a calling range here for villain. You plugged in villains specific hand of 9Ts vs your range in the HH , i think that's an issue when constructing the ranges here , villain doesn't only defend 9Ts he defends his BTN range.
With the actual hand i think check calling the river is a mistake as i don't think villain now turns hands like TT JJ 77 88 maybe even some 5x hands... into a bluff now hes managed to get them to showdown. I think when he shoves it's flushes full house or 9x . I don't think he has any total air now tbh maybe an AK type hand with the Ac as he can now rep those flushes but that is very few combos.
Why don't you like just taking a bet bet shove line here also ? he has lot's of pp's and likely calls down with TT JJ maybe even 77 88 A5 type hand , if i read your hud correctly you have 8 hands so no info really on how wide his range is. I would much prefer taking this line i think. Checking doesn't really do much for you , it allows his weaker hands to get to a cheap showdown and gives his draws a free card if he wants to take it.
My two pennies worth anyway. Ill stay involved on the site and post my own HH's , the activity seems very very low though at the moment.
I agree with your analysis here. This is a hand I played probably at least over a year ago, so I had to skim through the video to remember it. I agree that we should include some 9x suited connector hands into villain's BTN 3-bet defending range. In hindsight, I don't like checking the turn at all; at 10nl I should just betting here and looking to jamming the river like you said. Good insight into the hand.